With Trump’s recent victory, real estate professionals are counting on seeing significant rate cuts and enjoying potential benefits. These include a more vigorous market, relief for buyers, and more favorable financing conditions, by way of lower interest rates for investors. Bus this rosy forecast may be met with rain clouds.
Trump’s proposed tax cuts are meant to create a more business-friendly economic environment and may mildly stimulate the economy by increasing business investment. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) exercises a dual mandate: to control employment and keep inflation down. If the economy weakens, the Fed usually responds by stepping in and lowering rates to stimulate growth. Conversely, when the economy heats up, more money is circulating in the system and inflationary conditions can develop. To manage inflation the Fed may raise rates to control and stabilize the economy. When the economy is healthy, the Federal Reserve is less inclined to lower interest rates, to prevent the risk of the economy overheating.
Trump also proposes to impose tariffs on imports; a move that unlikely to prompt the Fed to lower rates and may even have the opposite effect. Tariffs are inherently inflationary, as they raise the cost of imported goods; and that cost ultimately finds its way to the consumer in the form of higher sticker prices. When prices rise, the Fed would be careful to avoid further rate cuts and instead would consider moving rates upward to counter inflationary pressures.
Based on the above, the environment created by Trump’s proposals, while beneficial to businesses and taxpayers, is at odds with conditions that would motivate the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Improving the economy will benefit the country – but are unlikely to warrant a decrease in interest rates.
That said, there’s room for an alternative perspective. A strong economy is a double-edged sword when it comes to interest rates. In a stable and non-volatile economy, Treasury rates fall. Investors are seeking safer assets, the increased demand for Treasury bonds drives their prices higher and yields lower. This decline in Treasury rates creates a ripple effect throughout the financial system, influencing other rates. As Treasury rates decline the global lending environment reacts. International borrowers are drawn to the US’s favorable market rates and increasing demand for US debt drives down lending rates further, including consumer and mortgage rates. Treasury rates, global lending, and consumer rates share a reciprocal relationship. The ‘zero risk rate’ set by the Treasury becomes the baseline for lending, when it is at a low, borrowing becomes cheaper for everyone.
Potential chain reactions from fluctuations in the 10-year Treasury bond market and the Federal Funds Futures remain uncertain and may have broader economic benefits. Lower consumer and mortgage rates spur growth by increasing disposable income. More disposable income translates into more discretionary purchasing – a boost for the retail and service industries. Businesses will take advantage of more affordable lending terms and can invest in big-ticket projects, expansion, and technology – which promotes employment across many sectors.
Additionally, a potential inflation buster that could lead to lower rates is Trump’s proposal to ease drilling restrictions to boost domestic oil and gas production. Energy prices are a significant driver of inflation. Lower energy costs will also result in reduced price increases and more disposable income for taxpayers to spend on consumer goods.
While on the campaign trail, Trump proposed that the president should have influence over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. In response, Chairman Powell, a Presidential Appointee, made clear that he would continue to run the Fed as an independent entity. Trump may be motivated to dismiss Powell and replace the Fed Board with more dovish appointees who are more sympathetic to lowering rates. However, there is no legal mechanism to remove an appointee, and the President cannot directly discharge the Fed Chair without legal cause. Trump may contend that Powell was appointed by a president and therefore, a president can remove him. Alternately, he may attempt to publicly pressure Powell to resign. I believe that both alternatives would fail and would provoke market instability and public criticism.
What can we conclude from our current combination of economic and political landscape? Optimists can stay hopeful, but even while market predictors prophesize a steady gradual decline in interest rates, I believe it is improbable that the Trump administration will be the catalyst for steeper cuts than those already built into market predictions. My advice to clients is to refrain from making assumptions or business decisions based on the expectations of drastically lower rates. Exercise caution when underwriting or investing in deals that depend heavily on significant rate declines. Instead, investors should focus on making decisions that prioritize long-term growth and remain sustainable across a variety of economic scenarios.
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide or be relied upon for legal or tax advice. If you have any specific legal or tax questions regarding this content or related issues, please consult with your professional legal or tax advisor.
