“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.”
— H. L. Mencken
It’s that season again — when those running for public office start making promises of all shapes and sizes, even those that defy the laws of economics. But let’s not forget their ultimate goal: to get more votes. As Churchill lamented, “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”
Let’s examine a few recent examples:
Vice President Harris, in her “economic plan” released on August 15th, promised to ban price gouging. This term usually refers to sellers exploiting market power to unfairly raise prices. With grocery prices up 26% since 2020, addressing this issue sounds appealing. However, even The New York Times felt compelled to critique this proposal, quoting economist Jason Furman: “This is not sensible policy, and I think the biggest hope is that it ends up being a lot of rhetoric and no reality.” Harris’s economic advisers surely know that price gouging bans have never and will never work, but they’re banking on voters not noticing.
Then there’s former President Trump’s tariff proposal: a 10% tariff on all imported goods. While this might appeal to voters who favor “America First” policies and resist globalization, these tariffs would ultimately raise prices for consumers. Although certain adverse measures can be justified in certain areas like computer chips (national security) or medicine (as seen during COVID), they ignore the fact that importing cheaper goods has long kept American lifestyles more affordable.
A final example is the bipartisan silence on the solvency of Social Security and the national debt. Telling seniors they might face pay cuts, or juniors that they need to pay more into the system, doesn’t win votes. As a result, these topics remain taboo until they become ticking time bombs.
Historian Niall Ferguson recently highlighted his “personal law of history:” “Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, t ancient régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire, this law is about to be put to the test by the U.S. beginning this very year.” Tackling this issue isn’t politically advantageous, so it’s conveniently ignored.
While were not here to predict the future, it is important to recognize the incentives driving political stances. To draw from the Churchill well once again, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” It’s high time for voters to wake up to economic reality – politics is often a game of fantasy.
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide or be relied upon for legal or tax advice. If you have any specific legal or tax questions regarding this content or related issues, please consult with your professional legal or tax advisor.
