Will M&A Survive Crushing Interest Rates and Government Staffing?
May 31, 2024 | BY Moshe Schupper, CPA
Healthcare entities regularly seek out merger and acquisition (M&A) opportunities to expand and diversify, but M&A becomes more expensive and less attractive when rising interest rates make the cost of borrowing prohibitive. Vacillating interest rates invite fluctuating costs of capital, disrupt valuations, and strain financing opportunities. Throw in the newly released staffing mandates and the combination of factors affects the overall volume of M&A transactions.
Interest rates and valuations generally work inversely. When interest rates climb, discount rates also rise. This brings on lower present values of future cash flows, which lowers valuations for companies. Fluctuating valuations affect the pricing of M&A transactions. Low valuations translate into potentially higher returns for investors and more M & A activity.
According to a recent report by Forbes, despite forecasts of reduced interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee has not moved to cut them. Currently, it seems most likely that the FOMC will cut rates in September and December, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Lower rates will mean lower valuations and will lead to a higher volume of M&A activity.
Where do staffing mandates come in? The nursing home industry is in an uproar in reaction to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services new staffing mandate that will demand that nursing homes provide residents with approximately 3.5 hours of nursing care per day, performed by both registered nurses and nurse aides. This is the first time nursing homes are looking at staffing requirements set by the federal government and they are none too pleased. The mandate has been widely opposed by the nursing home operators, claiming that it is unreasonable, and more importantly, unrealizable.
Over the next three to five years, as the mandate’s requirements are phased in, providers will be faced with threatening staffing costs. According to the American Healthcare Association (AHCA), the proposed mandate would require nursing homes to hire more than 100,000 additional nurses and nurse aides at an annual cost of $6.8 billion. This signals inevitable closures and sell-outs in the coming years. The new staffing mandates threaten the healthcare industry as a whole, especially the activity of mergers and acquisitions. The saving grace may come in the form of a marked lowering of interest rates which can more likely than not keep M&A activity active and even trigger a robust year for healthcare in general.
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide or be relied upon for legal or tax advice. If you have any specific legal or tax questions regarding this content or related issues, please consult with your professional legal or tax advisor.