“But Mommy, how is school supposed to be canceled if there’s nowhere near a foot of snow?” complains every 9-year-old when, once again, the meteorologist’s weather prediction goes awry.
As much as we love to gripe about the weather-predicting pundits, at least they tend to get it in the general ballpark. They may forecast a chilly 29 degrees topped with a foot of snow, which could end up being a 38-degree, slushy, killjoy. Yet while they don’t always nail the precise form of precipitation, we can still be confident that those aren’t the days to whip out the beach umbrellas from the garage.
Contrary to our almost-accurate weathermen, there is a group of predictors who often can’t even forecast conditions in the right direction (but somehow manage to keep their fancy office jobs). Ladies and gents, put your hands together for the brilliant economists and analysts of Wall Street.
Each Wall Street bank boldly predicts where the stock market is headed and whether or not the economy will face a recession. In early 2023, the Street foresaw a looming recession. A CNBC article from the final week of 2022 titled, Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023, attested to this. But as we all know, the recession never materialized and economists slowly retreated from their initial predictions.
What about their knack for predicting the stock market’s trajectory? At the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 stood at 3,839. Here were the predictions from various Wall Street giants as to where we would end the year:
J.P. Morgan: 4200
Wells Fargo: 4200
RBC: 4100
Credit Suisse: 4050
Goldman Sachs: 4000
HSBC: 4000
Citi: 4000
Bank of America: 4000
UBS: 3900
Morgan Stanley: 3900
Barclays: 3725
At year-end, the index closed at 4770. Not even the most elegant office chairs, sharpest suits or fancy Bloomberg terminals can guarantee an accurate prediction. Sometimes, not even close to accurate.
It’s time to grab a pair of noise-canceling headphones and drown out the external clamor about what to expect. Instead, like we always say, focus on a long-term plan and stick with it – through thick and thin.
Are you prepared to work on a long-term plan? Reach out to us at info@equinum.com for your personalized path to financial success.
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide or be relied upon for legal or tax advice. If you have any specific legal or tax questions regarding this content or related issues, please consult with your professional legal or tax advisor.
