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January 30, 2025 BY Hershy Donath, CPA

Forever On the Move: How Interstate Migration Affects the Real Estate Industry

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Americans are on the move. Retirees migrate towards warmer climates, job seekers move to areas with high job availability, cities with growing tech industries draw professionals, and post-pandemic remote employees have relocated from urban to suburban areas. As the demand for living space constantly shifts and readjusts, the real estate industry responds in kind.

Migration drivers

Americans’ migration patterns significantly impact the real estate market by influencing the supply and demand for housing. The continuing trend towards remote work means more people are searching for space in suburbia. Retail businesses are following migrating employees and moving to more suburban areas. There is less need for traditional office spaces – resulting in higher urban vacancy rates and declining rental rates.

Additionally, the growth of e-commerce has boosted the demand for industrial spaces needed for warehouses and distribution centers. Vacant office and retail spaces are being repurposed into residential, healthcare, or mixed-use properties to meet changing market demands.

The US Census Bureau reports that, over the next decade, the U.S. population aged 25–54 will grow by 12 million, while age 70+ population will increase by 15 million. This growing and aging population will expand and influence migration patterns, consumer spending, and health care needs. It will spur increased demand for related local amenities that have their own real estate needs – like retail and service-oriented real estate for restaurants, entertainment, or healthcare. Conversely, commercial real estate in areas experiencing ‘negative migration’ will suffer when a populace declines, experiencing a decline in foot traffic, increased vacancies, lower rent rolls, and lower property values.

Rental stats

The growing demand for affordable housing has intensified, exacerbated by the high cost of homeownership and weak single-family home inventory. The steep rise in the cost of purchasing a home has kept many households renting, by either choice or necessity. “Although it is the epitome of the American dream, it may no longer make sense to own a home,” says Shulem Rosenbaum, CPA/ABV, partner of Advisory Services and a member of Roth&Co’s real estate leadership team. “It is prudent to calculate the cost of owning a home versus renting, especially with the current limitations on the tax deductions on mortgage interest and a higher standard deduction.”

The U.S. Census Bureau calculates that almost half of renter households are considered “cost-burdened,” spending more than 30 percent of their income to keep a roof over their heads. A quarter of renters pay at least half of their income on rent. Not only does this high rent burden leave little for other necessities; it effectively locks households into a state of permanent rental because they cannot save for the downpayment and purchase of a home.

Additionally, an enormous number of baby boomers will soon need housing to transition into. The population of individuals ages 20 to 34, the prime renter age, will rise through 2030, then level off. The population in the 65-and-older cohort is also rapidly rising, and this group is increasingly choosing to rent multifamily and single-family units.

Supply growth plays a pivotal role in shaping the multifamily sector’s outlook. More supply tends to drive rents down, while limited supply pushes rents up. We believe that, over the medium term, the anticipated decline in new construction will help stabilize over-supplied markets. The resulting recovery in rent growth will bolster investor confidence and revitalize the sluggish transactions market.

Cap Rates

Capitalization rates in different geographic areas reflect migration patterns and are influenced by demand. Cap rates are lower in healthy, high-demand areas and higher in markets struggling with negative-migration. These fluctuations illustrate how the trends in migration influence investors’ perception of risk.

Areas experiencing growth and increased demand for real estate, such as the southern states of Florida, Texas, and Arizona, are showing lower cap rates. The strong demand and potential for profit offers the investor low risk opportunities. Conversely, areas losing populace, like New York City or San Francisco, show higher cap rates as demand for office, retail, and even some residential spaces decline.

Although many claim that real estate investment is suffering, due to the high interest rates and the changing landscape and migration patterns, there may be opportunities for prudent investors seeking to capitalize on these trends. Specifically, markets with higher cap rates may offer opportunities to acquire undervalued assets, provided investors are equipped to address the risks associated with negative migration.

Risk

Real estate has often been considered a passive investment with less risk than traditional businesses. However, recent trends have demonstrated that real estate must be approached as an active business. The competitive landscape, rapidly shifting dynamics, and the risk of product obsolescence demand a more strategic approach.

Real estate investors should operate their portfolios with the same innovation and agility as traditional businesses. “It’s not enough to rely on past performance or location value,” Rosenbaum notes. “Investors need to focus on calculating ROIs, monitoring market trends, and leveraging traditional business metrics to remain competitive and profitable.”

This business-like approach requires that investors continuously evaluate opportunities for redevelopment, adapt to changing market demands, and proactively manage assets to optimize returns. Whether it’s repurposing a property for new uses, investing in technology to enhance operational efficiency, or diversifying to mitigate risk, treating real estate like a business is essential in today’s market. “The key is to think ahead and be ready to pivot,” says Rosenbaum, “because in real estate, just like in business, staying stagnant is not an option.”

Basic Economics

Our client base and the broader real estate landscape have taught us one thing: Real estate is not immune from the most fundamental principle in economics – it’s always about supply and demand. Increased demand drives up property values and lowers cap rates, while properties that lose residents see less demand and higher cap rates. For investors, staying attuned to migration patterns and ready to capitalize on them is key to making decisive and profitable investment choices.

This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide or be relied upon for legal or tax advice. If you have any specific legal or tax questions regarding this content or related issues, please consult with your professional legal or tax advisor.