The commercial real estate industry is heading towards a financing chokehold and that may translate into overwhelming stress for traditional sources of credit – namely banks and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). CREnews.com, in its “Year-End 2023: CRE at a Crossroads”, reports that about $2.8 trillion in commercial real estate (CRE) loans are maturing over the next five years, with $544.3 billion coming due this year, the majority of which are owned by banks and commercial mortgage-backed securities. Commercial real estate owners are experiencing a weakened demand for office space and a softening of property values. Previously low interest rates will be unobtainable, making refinancing untenable, and receiverships and defaults are looming. Lenders will look to unload defaulted properties at a much lower value. Lender’s CRE exposure, coupled with rising deposit costs, high levels of uninsured deposits, and declining asset values, have left commercial real estate owners – specifically, those holding maturing debt – in a very dangerous space.
Nomura analyst Greg Hertrich, quoted in a recent Reuters report, says, “Almost 50 U.S. lenders could fail in the coming years under pressure from higher interest rates and operational problems.” This projection is strongly supported by the FDIC’s published list of “problem banks” which listed fifty-two banks totaling $66.3 billion in assets experiencing financial, operational, or managerial weaknesses. In another analysis, conducted by Consulting firm Klaros Group, a review of 4,000 banks found that 282 banks face the threat of commercial real estate loans and potential losses tied to higher interest rates.
Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve published its Financial Stability Report, disclosing its assessment of the stability of the U.S. financial system as of Q1 2024. The study solicited views from a range of broker-dealers, investment funds, research and advisory firms, and academics concerned about the risks to U.S. financial stability. The study reported that banks with a significant exposure to commercial real estate loans could be headed for substantial losses if the trend towards remote work, high vacancy rates and slow rent growth continues. Funding tensions were also attributed to high levels of uninsured deposits and declines in the fair value of assets. The report’s respondents also noted that because interest rates may stay higher for longer than expected, there is a higher potential for “renewed deposit outflows,” or to use the colloquial term, “a run on the bank.”
Should borrowers worry? Some say not. In testimony in a May 15 Capitol Hill hearing on bank oversight, regulators opined that the banking industry is resilient, despite last years’ spate of bank failures. Martin J. Gruenberg, Chairman of the FDIC Board of Directors, testifying for the House Committee on Financial Services, said that banks have sufficient capital on hand, and sufficient liquidity to weather the storm. Gruenberg tempered his prognosis by noting that the banking industry continues to face significant downside risks from inflation, volatile interest rates, and global instability. The economic outlook is uncertain and “these risks could cause credit quality and profitability to weaken, loan growth to slow, provision expenses to rise, and liquidity to become more constrained.”
Lenders are walking a tightrope and that tightrope could easily be snapped by a change in interest rates, a global crisis, or borrower panic. In response, borrowers should stay aware, and start thinking about upcoming refinancing often and early. Traditional lending sources are sure to be compromised in the immediate future, and their available funds constrained and reserved for the best performing properties. By staying informed, property owners can strategically position themselves to address their refinancing needs.
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide or be relied upon for legal or tax advice. If you have any specific legal or tax questions regarding this content or related issues, please consult with your professional legal or tax advisor.
